John Walker’s career began with developing mathematical models for space research, transportation analysis, and regional development. Research on the impacts of crime on patterns of regional development led to fifteen years with the Australian Institute of Criminology, followed by 25+ years as an independent crime trends analyst.
He developed Leontief-type methods of forecasting trends in crime to assist modelling future demand for criminal justice resources. He recognised the neglected importance of addressing the economics of crime, leading to world-first estimates of the costs of crime, the proceeds of crime and the extent of money laundering. The much-referenced Tinbergen-style “Walker Gravity Model” has become the academically-recognised standard for estimating the likely international flows of laundered money.
He has been described as a lateral-thinking pioneer in the application of data analysis and econometric modelling to criminology, with a talent for “blending dodgy data and heroic assumptions, and turning them into something very useful”!
Professor Walker previously has taught and conducted research as:
He has also collaborated extensively with researchers at the Universities of Melbourne, Western Sydney, Utrecht (Netherlands), and the Catholic University of Milan (Italy).
Professor Walker’s career has focused on the analysis of crime and justice data, the development of new data sources (e.g. crime victims’ surveys, financial transactions data) and methodologies for estimating emerging threats and forecasting future trends in demand for policing and justice services. He is particularly fascinated by “new” threats, for which no or little previous research has ever been conducted. In the 1990s, the big, unresearched issue was “the costs of crime”; the focus later turned to the proceeds of serious and organised crime and money laundering, and more recently to cybercrime. Having already made significant contributions to the study of costs and laundering, he is looking forward to opportunities to develop new ways of researching cybercrime.
As CEO of John Walker Crime Trends Analysis, among Professor Walker’s clients have been the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, the IMF, the EU and the World Bank as well as a host of Australian and other countries’ law enforcement and justice agencies.
He is a member of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime.
2015 The Costs of Serious and Organised Crime in Australia, Australian Crime Commission, Canberra.
2014 The impact of organised crime investments on the European legitimate economy, in TransCrime, From illegal markets to legitimate businesses: - the portfolio of organised crime in Europe.
2013 ECOLEF, The Economic and Legal Effectiveness of Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Terrorist Financing Policy: Final Report, Utrecht, report prepared for the European Commission. Utrecht University.
2013 Where does China’s Dirty Money Outflow? - The Walker Gravity Model and Five Dimensions Analysis, 杨泾, Walker J., and 吴志明. Chinese Journal of Financial Theory and Practice, July 2013.
2011 Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes, Research Report, Thomas Pietschmann, T. and Walker, J. UNODC, Vienna.
2010 Trends & Issues No 402 - The illegal movement of cash and bearer negotiable instruments: typologies and regulatory responses, Russell G Smith and John Walker, AIC.
2009 Ch.23 - ‘Measuring Global Money Laundering: “The Walker Gravity Model”’, Walker, J. and Unger B.,, in Beekarry, N. (Ed.), Combating Money Laundering And Terrorism Finance: Past And Current Challenges, Edward Elgar Publishing.
2009 "Measuring Global Money Laundering: "The Walker Gravity Model", Walker, J & Unger, B., in Review of Law & Economics: V5.
2009 The Past, Present & Possible Future of ‘the Walker model’ of transnational crime and money laundering”, XVIII Tor Vergata Conference on Money, Banking, & Finance, Rome.
2009 Utilising academic expertise to scope the criminal economy, in Accord, Issue 1, February 2009, Australian Crime Commission.
2008 Measuring a Country’s Attractiveness to Money Launderers, Report to the IMF, Washington, IMF.
2007 The Extent of Money Laundering in & through Australia in 2004, Austrac.
2007 Money Laundering in & through Australia in 2004, Stamp, J. & Walker, J., Trends & Issues No 342, AIC.
2006 Review of Donato Masciandaro (Ed.) (2004) Terrorism and Organised Crime – Financial Markets and Offshore Centres: Myths and Realities, in Global Crime Volume 7 Number 2 (May 2006).
2005 Estimating the Value of Illicit Drug Markets, Pietschmann T., and Walker J., in UNODC, 2005 World Drug Report, Volume 1 Analysis, Vienna.
2003 The Profits & Losses of Global Crime, Ontario, de Sitter Publications.
2003 Country Analysis - Australia, Montano E., and Walker J., in Clark A. et al., A Practitioner's Guide to International Money Laundering Law and Regulation, London, City and Financial Press.
2000 Legislative & Economic Factors Determining International Flows of Laundered Money, Paper presented to U.N. 10th Congress on Crime Prevention & Treatment of Offenders, Vienna.
2000 Money laundering – Quantifying International Patterns Melbourne, Australian Social Monitor, V6 , No 1.
1999 Firearm abuse and regulation around the world, in Newman G. (Ed) Global Report on Crime and Justice, New York, UNODC and Oxford University Press.
1999 How Big is Global Money Laundering Journal of Money Laundering Control, Vol3, 1.
1998 UN International Study on Firearm Regulation. UNODC, New York.
1997 Trends & Issues No.72 - Estimates of the Costs of Crime in Australia in 1996. AIC.
1995 The Extent of Money Laundering in & through Australia. Austrac.
1995 Trends & Issues No.45 - Crimes against Businesses in Australia. AIC.
1994 Crime against Businesses in Australia. AIC.
1993 Crime in Australia - the Australian Component of the 1992 International Crime Victims Survey. AIC.
1992 Trends & Issues No.39 - Estimates of the Costs of Crime in Australia. AIC
1989 Trends & Issues No.23 - A Comparison of Crime in Australia and Other Countries. AIC (Walker, J. et al).
AIC = Australian Institute of Criminology, Canberra
Austrac = Australian Transaction Reports & Analysis Centre
UNODC = United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime